From the Stuff.co.nz article “Wellington still prone to quakes” comes this little gem of stupidity:

Bart Hanson (09:08 pm Sep 18 2009) This article epitomizes my disgust for experts who cannot tell us when the next huge natural disaster will hit and merely being in a particular place at that moment will decide who lives and who dies, but still we are being told not to be complacent? Like hell, get stuffed I’ve got better things to worry about.

You are beyond ignorant if you think the experts can even start to accurately predict earthquakes or many other major natural disasters. Even having a basic grasp of geology of seismology will tell you that these things are not predictable to within a useful accuracy or precision. We had a discussion about the dangers, and inadequacies, of earthquake prediction in Episode 11 of the podClast.

Other things science can’t do: accurately predict when the next killer asteroid will strike the Earth. The reasons are the same, there’s not enough data on either scenario in order to make an accurate, down to the minute-, hour-, month-, year- or decade-accurate forecast or as to exactly where either event will exactly occur.

The best geologists can do is look to the past, i.e, the old geology phrase “The past is the key to the future.” If a fault has ruptured roughly once every 100 years (and you’d be able to see this in the geological record), you should expect it to do so again in 100 years since the previous event. Or 150 years. Or 80 years. Earthquakes don’t run on a precision clock, and thus are never “early” or “overdue”. They occur when they occur.

If you’re caught out by having “better things to worry about”, Mr Bart Hanson, don’t go crying to others for food, shelter or clean water when you are caught in a natural disaster. Obviously the tiny amount of effort it takes to store some water, canned food and other supplies somewhere (details here at the USGS) is far outweighed by your necessity to spend time complaining on the internet.

Being prepared for natural disasters is important. Like not paying tax, not taking medication or indulging in smoking, you may think you’re getting away with it, but after a while, it could catch up with you, and the results could, literally, be deadly.

If you live in an earthquake zone, like I and many others do, the seriousness of being prepared cannot be overstated. Again, a list of the things you need can be found at the USGS. It’s not difficult and it could well save your life.

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  • Erik on 2009-09-21 @ 1555

    I think Bart Hanson is confused about predicting the occurrence of natural disasters (which we can’t do well for a number of reasons) vs. predicting the behavior of ongoing natural disasters.

    Seeing the weather girl on TV showing the projected path of the latest hurricane or the towns with tornado warnings for the next three hours is not the same as declaring that a hurricane or thunderstorm will probably occur at some specified date, time, and location in the distant future. We can do a reasonably good job of predicting where landslides might occur, where liquefaction might occur, or which buildings might be unsafe in a given earthquake scenario just like we can issue storm warnings once we know that a storm is going on. The problem is that earthquakes happen too fast for those kinds of specific event-specific warnings to ever be useful, hence the need for general preparedness.


  • Sharla Shimono on 2009-09-22 @ 1538

    Bart Hanson’s comment displays an opinion probably shared by most who are not as well educated in the sciences and don’t understand the limits that restrict scientist ability to predict the occurrences of natural disasters. The idea of being able to closely monitor a natural disaster as it is happening, may be misleading as to why the occurrence of one can’t be predicted with the same accuracy. The comment posted by Erik states it best, as his example of watching the weather girl on TV showing projected routes of a hurricane, may lead someone to ask why can’t they declare the specific location, date and time of the next hurricane. What is not realized, is the fact that the observance of the natural disaster’s behavior only occurs once the disaster has formed, and not before. Our technology is limited to only modeling the situations that could cause a natural disaster, but the possible combinations of factors are too numerous for this to be a reliable source.

    Living in the southern California region, close to the San Andreas fault puts us at a greater risk for earthquakes, as well as the “big one” that is said to be long overdue. This expectance is based off of previous patterns, and like much geologic activity operates on a time scale with decades of years of deviation. During the first lecture of the Earthquakes class (GEOL 240) at the University of Southern California, we are taught about the unpredictability of earthquakes due to never knowing when the “snap” would occur. Geologists may be able to detect signs prior to an earthquake rupturing, but given the speed of an earthquake it’ll be too late to take any preventative measures. Your statement about being prepared for a natural disaster “Like not paying tax, not taking medication or indulging in smoking, you may think you’re getting away with it, but after a while, it could catch up with you, and the results could, literally, be deadly.” reflect the importance of being prepared. These scientists have spent many years learning what they can to understand the Earth system, you can choose to question the authority they may have on these issues, but I am going to listen to the experts.

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